CESifo: no direct evidence AI is driving graduate unemployment

A CESifo report found little direct evidence that AI is raising unemployment among recent graduates, attributing summer jobless spikes to seasonal hiring cycles. Median monthly AI spending per employee has doubled since late 2025, yet no statistically significant employment impact has appeared.

• CESifo found no statistically significant link between AI and graduate unemployment
• Summer graduate unemployment has stayed between 6.3% and 7.8% since 2022
• Median monthly AI spending per employee doubled since late 2025
• Authors do not rule out larger effects in the future