CESifo study finds no AI-driven unemployment spike among new grads

Economists Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu at Munich's CESifo analyzed Current Population Survey microdata and found no significant, widespread displacement of recent college graduates in 2026. Summer unemployment for 22-25 year-old graduates was 7.3%, within the 6.3-7.8% range of 2022-2024.

• Summer 2026 unemployment for recent grads was 7.3%, vs 6.3-7.8% in 2022-2024
• Differences by group and AI-exposure level were not statistically significant
• Findings contradict a Stanford study based on ADP payroll data
• Researchers warn the classes of 2027 and later could be more affected