Harvard Economists Raise 2030 US EV Sales Forecast to 38%

Harvard economists revised their forecast for EV share of new US sales by 2030 from 32% to 38%, versus 8% in 2025. Canceling the $7,500 subsidy reduces the share by only 6.2 percentage points—from 48% to 39.4% relative to the baseline scenario.

• US EV share forecast for 2030 raised from 32% to 38%
• In 2025, EV share in the US was 8%
• Canceling the $7,500 subsidy lowers 2030 share by 6.2 percentage points
• Without canceling Biden's policy, EV share by 2030 would be 48%