Simulation Warns Solar Geoengineering Could Spark a Geopolitical Arms Race

A UK government-funded simulation modeled how the world might react to a rapid push to deploy solar radiation modification (SRM). Participants—scientists, former officials and military experts—found the political situation quickly devolved into a "geoengineering arms race" between the US and China, with climate goals overshadowed by strategic competition.

• The simulation was held at Queen Mary University of London with UK government funding
• In the scenario, the US and China competed for control of SRM technology
• The fossil fuel industry posed as NGOs to sell geoengineering as an alternative to cutting emissions
• The main obstacle was assessing and trusting information in a fraught political context