Gartner warns $3.5tn of AI infrastructure spending is at write-down risk

Gartner estimates that more than $3.5tn of AI infrastructure spending could be impaired by the end of 2030 if providers keep spending at the current pace. Covering that outlay and a 12% return would require $8.5tn in revenue, while Gartner forecasts no more than $3.6tn of AI revenue. It also expects over 80% of neoclouds to stop operating independently by 2030.

• $3.5tn at write-down risk by 2030, over $4tn by 2032
• AI infrastructure spend near $1tn in 2026 and $6tn in 2027–2030
• $8.5tn of revenue needed versus forecast of no more than $3.6tn
• Over 80% of neoclouds to exit or lose independence by 2030