Business2 hOctober 8, 2026, 14:09

Report: Prediction market trading volume surged to $187B in half a year

DigitalX Research Center (Mirae Asset) published a report titled "Prediction Markets: Between Gambling and Finance." Nominal half-year volume on major platforms jumped from $800 million in H1 2024 to $187 billion in H1 2026. An analysis of 2,870 Polymarket markets found high accuracy on Fed rate bets but weaker performance on geopolitics.

Businesskorea

Open source

Report: Prediction market trading volume surged to $187B in half a year

Volume rose from $800M in H1 2024 to $187B in H1 2026
FOMC rate bets were correct 22 out of 22 times
Iran-related geopolitical markets erred twice as much 30 days out
US regulates via CFTC, while South Korea blocked Polymarket

#Polymarket#Kalshi#CFTC

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