NBER: AI raised expected software engineer productivity by 32.6%

Economists at the US National Bureau of Economic Research estimated AI's impact on software engineer productivity by analyzing stock price reactions of firms that rely heavily on developers. They conclude markets priced in a permanent 32.6% productivity increase between November 2022 and December 2025.

• Estimate derived from stock price responses of developer-heavy firms
• Markets priced in a permanent 32.6% productivity gain
• Analysis covers November 2022 to December 2025
• Paper published by the US National Bureau of Economic Research