Tesla Q3 2026 delivery estimates range from 422,000 to 482,000

Ahead of Tesla's October 2 report, Wall Street estimates for Q3 2026 deliveries range from 421,758 to 482,000 vehicles. The median of six major banks is about 458,000, an 8% drop from the record 497,099 delivered a year earlier.

• Goldman Sachs cut its estimate from 490,000 to 435,000
• JPMorgan lowered its forecast by 34,000 to 482,000
• Tesla's US sales fell 26% year-over-year in August to 40,816
• China retail sales dropped 12.4% to 50,047 units