Vent fluid temperatures predicted a mid-ocean eruption before it struck

Scientists used a 35-year record of hydrothermal vent fluid temperatures on the East Pacific Rise to forecast an eruption for the first time. Temperatures climbed from about 350°C to nearly 390°C before the late-April 2025 event, which researchers then observed from the submersible Alvin.

• 35 years of vent temperatures were logged every 10 minutes at five sites
• Before the 1991–1992 and 2005–2006 eruptions, temperatures rose from 350°C to 390°C
• The late-April 2025 eruption was forecast in advance and caught within hours
• Plates near 9°N spread at roughly 11 cm per year