Model doubles projected sea-level contribution of Thwaites Glacier

A revised ice sheet model from UC Irvine and NASA JPL projects that Thwaites Glacier could add up to 30 mm (1.2 inches) to sea level by 2100 — twice earlier estimates even without further warming. The model replaces the narrow grounding line with a 4–6 km grounding zone where warm seawater reaches beneath the ice. The study was published in Nature Communications.

• Thwaites could add up to 30 mm to sea level by 2100
• Model uses a 4–6 km grounding zone instead of a narrow grounding line
• 60% probability of unpinning from Mouginot Ridge by century's end
• Model calibrated against more than 20 years of observations