Analyst: Steam wishlists are inflating, but still predict sales reliably

Marketing expert Chris Zukowski analyzed data from 160 games and confirmed Steam wishlist "inflation": 2023–2025 releases sold an average of 0.22 copies per wishlist in their launch month, versus 0.45 for 2020–2022 games. Still, the link between wishlist counts and sales has barely weakened, and wishlist velocity predicts sales almost as accurately.

• 2023–2025 games sell 0.22 copies per wishlist in launch month vs 0.45 for 2020–2022
• By the end of the debut year the gap persists: 0.7 vs 0.99 copies per wishlist
• Causes: easier wishlisting and hype around Steam festivals
• Wishlist velocity forecasts sales almost as accurately as wishlist counts