Goldman Sachs: $150B in Paper Gains Inflated Q2 S&P 500 Earnings

A Goldman Sachs analysis found large tech firms booked about $150 billion in unrealized gains on private AI stakes (Anthropic, SpaceX) in Q2 2026, accounting for 12% of S&P 500 EPS. Excluding those mark-to-market gains, EPS growth was 26% instead of 45%. Goldman forecasts 27% EPS growth in Q3 and $375 for full-year 2026.

• $150B in unrealized gains on private AI stakes made up 12% of Q2 S&P 500 EPS
• Ex-paper-gains EPS growth was 26%, not the headline 45%
• Goldman sees 27% Q3 EPS growth and $375 for full-year 2026
• Hyperscaler capex is projected to top $1.1 trillion in 2027