Centrii: 92% chance of major grid cyberattack by 2031

Centrii's analysis of 10,000 simulations estimates a 92% probability of a successful major attack on a power grid affecting a million or more people by 2031 under current industry practice. Mandatory IEC 62443 SL2 certification and regular drills could cut that to 61%, with the earliest attack window in 2027–2028.

• 10,000 simulations: 92% probability of a major grid attack by 2031
• Mandatory IEC 62443 SL2 certification and drills cut risk to 61%
• Earliest attack window could emerge in 2027–2028
• Dragos counted about 3,300 industrial organizations hit by ransomware in a year